When it comes to the proposed MURF (multi-use recreation complex) site on West Street, it could be three strikes and it’s out.

Speaking frankly with members of the city’s Ad Hoc Alternative Strategies Committee on Tuesday, city manager Ian Brown said he did not like the odds on the city receiving Ministry of Environment approval for its third MURF risk-assessment study.

“I’m highly skeptical whether the ministry will approve this risk assessment,” said Brown. More optimistic is Coun. Ralph Cipolla, a staunch supporter of the troubled West Street site.

 “I’m optimistic (about the risk assessment study) because the city has really needed a recreation complex like this for the past 40 years. Every single council that this community has had has let this city down, in terms of recreational facilities,” said Cipolla.

Parks and recreation staff unveiled a MURF ‘Decision Tree’ on Tuesday, laying out the possible routes to the possible start of MURF construction.

Time lines ranged from 2009 through until 2013.

Coun. Tim Lauer, chair of the ad hoc committee, said he is not worried about possible barriers laid out in the MURF Decision Tree.

“That doesn’t worry me. That’s part of the process. When things evolve, there are always some murky areas and you are not sure about what direction you are going to go in or where you are going to go. The things is you get as much information as you can and make some kind of decision so people can make plans as soon as possible,” he said.

Fellow council members Joe Fecht and Maurice MacMillan were also in attendance at the meeting and expressed frustration with the delay in getting recreational facilities online.

Councilor Don Evans also attended the meeting, but made no public comments, other than to say he eagerly awaited any committee report presented to council.

Cipolla said of all possible locations in the city, the West Street property remains the ideal location in his mind.

“We have to be optimistic about the site (West Street) because no matter where we go, it going to cost us the same price no matter where we go, be it an arena, pool or gymnasium,” added Cipolla.

The current price tag for construction of at MURF at the West Street property has been pegged at $62 million, a cost Lauer fellow council member Michael Fogarty have indicated in the past is too expensive.

With the latest risk assessment study due to be sent to the MOE in October, Cipolla said he is confident approval will be received either before the end of the year, or early in 2009.

Fogarty said the committee was struck to get the city moving on recreation facilities and he wants action and not further delays.

“That is why this committee has come together to say enough is enough. We want action,” he said.

He noted the time has come to investigate alternative MURF sites, including a possible move to the former Horne farm, located next to the Old Barrie Road.

“Definitely we need to look at alternatives. When the city manager, the one man who has been involved in this process since day one, states he doubts we are going to get approval for our latest risk assessment study, that suggests alternatives are needed. That’s the clearest statement I’ve heard on the West Street property to date,” said Fogarty.

“We need recreation facilities now. The fact it could take until 2013 is scary,” said Fogarty.

In preparation for the submission of the third risk assessment study, Brown said city consultants have been holding regular discussions with MOE officials since March.

However, he noted the two parties have had trouble getting their questions and answers straight.

The confusion arises from what information the city must provide to the MOE to answer ongoing environmental questions concerning the West Street site.

Based on discussions he has witnessed between MOE officials and consultants working with the city on the MURF project, Brown said it would be prudent for the ad hoc committee to explore other sites besides the West Street property.

Fogarty said in exploring other sites, city officials would not find themselves back at square one with planning.

“I have done the needs assessment study. We know what we need and we know what we want. We also have some good knowledge and good designs. We can recycle some of that,” said Fogarty.

Since significant MURF discussions began eight years ago, Lauer said he has always had major concerns about the escalating costs of the project.

He points to the current condition of tennis courts in Orillia, one sport that has a strong following.

“The tennis courts in this town are ridiculous and I’m hearing stories from people in town who play tennis regularly and say how the courts are in such poor shape,” said Lauer.

Thursday morning, members of the ad hoc committee are scheduled to meet with Simcoe North MP Bruce Stanton and Simcoe North MPP Garfield Dunlop to discuss the MURF project and possible funding from the provincial and federal governments.